“Certain uncertainty: The role of internal climate variability in projections of regional climate change and risk management”

Abstract Internal climate variability co‐exists with anthropogenic climate change and places limits on the accuracy of regional climate projections due to its inherent unpredictability. This “certain” uncertainty in regional projections introduced by internal variability contrasts with uncertainty resulting from structural differences amongst climate models, which is potentially reducible as climate models improve. Initial‐condition “Large Ensembles” […]

“Certain uncertainty: The role of internal climate variability in projections of regional climate change and risk management”

Abstract Internal climate variability co‐exists with anthropogenic climate change and places limits on the accuracy of regional climate projections due to its inherent unpredictability. This “certain” uncertainty in regional projections introduced by internal variability contrasts with uncertainty resulting from structural differences amongst climate models, which is potentially reducible as climate models improve. Initial‐condition “Large Ensembles” […]